Click the link below to view the Market Report for July.
http://www.myjrw.com/documents/Forms/MarketReportJuly2009.pdf
It is interesting to note that median sales price dropped slightly from the level it has held since January (less than 3%), due to the fact that there were over 3,000 closings in the price segment under $250,000.
Although properties priced under $250,000 continue to dominate the market, the $1,000,000 - $2,000,000 price category posted a 35% gain over July 2008. We will continue to monitor all segments over $1,000,000 to see if this signals the beginning of a trend for the upper end market.
Available inventory continues to fall with single family homes showing a 24% decline from July 2008 levels, and condominiums dropping by 12%.
August, traditionally one of the slower months for pended sales, is substantially outpacing August 2008 through the first week. We expect this trend to continue throughout the month and to strengthen as we approach “season”. Price is still king in terms of attracting buyers, and properties priced to the current market are once again creating multiple offer situations in many cases.
Information provided by:
Dottie Babcock, CCIM, CRB
Chief Operating Officer
John R. Wood Realtors
Saturday, August 22, 2009
There’s Value in Real Estate, if You Find Your Florida
Article taken from the New York Times
By PAUL SULLIVAN
Published: August 7, 2009
THE last thing most people are thinking of investing in right now is real estate. The collapse of residential values stung almost all homeowners. And the commercial market, from offices to shopping malls, is full of uncertainty as unemployment rises and consumer spending continues to be weak.
“Florida is in a storm right now,” said Greg Rand, managing partner at Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty. “It’s overdeveloped, overspeculated and overleveraged.”
Wealth Matters
Paul Sullivan writes about strategies that the wealthy use to manage their money and their overall well-being.
Yet there are those who argue that this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to buy property. Greg Rand, managing partner at Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, a brokerage in the suburbs north of New York, even has a theory to guide investors. He calls it “house rich.”
Simply put, the days of buying almost anything and watching it appreciate are over. Those who want to make money in real estate now will have to do extensive research and expect to hold the property for at least a decade.
The crux of the idea is not buying a distressed property but “finding your Florida.” By that he means investing in a piece of real estate, be it residential or commercial, in a hard-hit place that has to rebound. “Florida is in a storm right now,” Mr. Rand said. “It’s overdeveloped, overspeculated and overleveraged.” Yet, with 78 million baby boomers expected to retire in the next two decades, the state’s long-term prospects are solid: a good proportion of them will want to be someplace warm and sunny when they stop working.
Mr. Rand is not alone in this. Some of the biggest players in real estate see opportunity around the country. “We are now looking at one of those rare opportunities to invest in commercial real estate,” said Hessam Nadji, managing director at Marcus & Millichap, a commercial real estate investment adviser based in Encino. Calif. “There are plenty of properties in the $5 million to $20 million range, whether they’re apartments or shopping centers, that are located in places where supply is constrained.” He added that these otherwise solid properties were for sale now because losses elsewhere were forcing their owners to raise money.
While many investors may not believe that real estate is returning as a steady, performing asset, the following criteria can guide those ready to re-enter the market. DUE DILIGENCE Investing in real estate has always carried risk. But where many people went wrong was in taking a house vanity approach — they bought their dream home without knowing how its price compared to either historical levels or the prices in nearby neighborhoods.
Mr. Rand tells the story of the Trump Tower, in White Plains, which he represents. When the sales office opened during construction, buyers focused on the penthouse condominiums with views of Long Island and New York City. At that time in 2004, the going price for 2,200 square feet on a high floor was around $1.8 million, he said. That would seem to be a deal for a buyer in Manhattan, 30 miles south, but in White Plains, few single-family homes had ever sold for that much.
He said investors who bought units on lower floors — priced closer to $700,000 — did much better. The reason was that their fixed costs — mortgage, fees and taxes — were lower, which meant they could attract a larger pool of renters to cover their investment.
The lesson here was that anyone who really knew the White Plains market would have been more hesitant in buying a $2 million apartment as an investment. “The key is due diligence over sex appeal,” he said. THE COSTS What makes or breaks any real estate investment is fixed costs. Investors need to know how they are going to cover the amount they have to pay, whether the property is rented or not.
In Trump Tower, the monthly fixed costs for the penthouse apartment were $11,100 with an expected rent in 2005 of $8,000, Mr. Rand said. On the lower floors, the costs and expected rent were the same, both about $5,000. Any experienced real estate investor will tell you there are times when even the best properties, whether apartments or shopping centers, have vacancies and that means some of those costs fall on the investor.
This sounds obvious, but from 2005 until early last year, there were plenty of amateur investors who only realized this after their tenants left. What signals a return to understanding that basic principle is a return of savvier investors. “A lot of people who are coming back into the market that I’ve known for decades are saying the market is normalizing again,” said Harvey E. Green, president and chief executive at the commercial real estate brokerage Marcus & Millichap, and a 40-year veteran of the real estate market. The years “2005, 2006, and 2007 were the frothiest part of the marketplace, and these people stepped out on the sidelines.”
In other words, the smart money is back after years of watching.
YOUR GOALS Consider the South Florida market again. Many people who got caught had visions of renters covering all the costs on properties they bought. When renters became scarce and values plummeted, these investors did not have a backup plan. A better way is to set a goal for the investment. Do you want to add to your cash flow immediately or can you afford to take a longer view of 10 to 15 years?
If your goal is to make money now, you will probably have to buy an older property and fix it up. This requires a more active role, and still, the return will not be what it was at the peak.
Mr. Nadji said investors in Class B commercial real estate — solid but not marquee properties — can expect returns in the high single digits. But most of those properties are not likely to appreciate in value for two or three years.
With a longer view, the options change. Ruth Trettis, a broker at Premier Properties in Naples, Fla., said one investor bought nine homes, worth more than $32 million, in the last year in Port Royal, the town’s most affluent neighborhood. Another investor bought three homes in Port Royal worth $14 million over a single weekend in May and a fourth one last month for $13.5 million (it was listed at $19.9 million).
So far, she said, neither buyer has done anything with the properties. Even though both bought these houses at steep discounts, the costs of just holding them are immense. But they clearly have a long-term goal and a belief in the area.
THE RISKS Real estate is like every investment today. Experts and amateurs alike have strong opinions on what will work and what won’t. The message within the real estate market itself is mixed. Last week’s report on flat home sales from April to May seemed to be heartening, but it was misleading. Homes sell better as the weather warms up. The better indicator of a bottom will come when year-on-year numbers are flat, and those have yet to appear.
The one upside is inflation, or at least the fear of inflation. Hard assets like real estate historically do well when there is inflation. What this means is the longer your time horizon for investing in property, the better your chance of achieving real returns.
“Real estate was never a short-term investment,” Mr. Green said. “It was just in that frothy market.” In this sense, the one certainty is that the age of the flipper is behind us.
By PAUL SULLIVAN
Published: August 7, 2009
THE last thing most people are thinking of investing in right now is real estate. The collapse of residential values stung almost all homeowners. And the commercial market, from offices to shopping malls, is full of uncertainty as unemployment rises and consumer spending continues to be weak.
“Florida is in a storm right now,” said Greg Rand, managing partner at Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty. “It’s overdeveloped, overspeculated and overleveraged.”
Wealth Matters
Paul Sullivan writes about strategies that the wealthy use to manage their money and their overall well-being.
Yet there are those who argue that this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to buy property. Greg Rand, managing partner at Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, a brokerage in the suburbs north of New York, even has a theory to guide investors. He calls it “house rich.”
Simply put, the days of buying almost anything and watching it appreciate are over. Those who want to make money in real estate now will have to do extensive research and expect to hold the property for at least a decade.
The crux of the idea is not buying a distressed property but “finding your Florida.” By that he means investing in a piece of real estate, be it residential or commercial, in a hard-hit place that has to rebound. “Florida is in a storm right now,” Mr. Rand said. “It’s overdeveloped, overspeculated and overleveraged.” Yet, with 78 million baby boomers expected to retire in the next two decades, the state’s long-term prospects are solid: a good proportion of them will want to be someplace warm and sunny when they stop working.
Mr. Rand is not alone in this. Some of the biggest players in real estate see opportunity around the country. “We are now looking at one of those rare opportunities to invest in commercial real estate,” said Hessam Nadji, managing director at Marcus & Millichap, a commercial real estate investment adviser based in Encino. Calif. “There are plenty of properties in the $5 million to $20 million range, whether they’re apartments or shopping centers, that are located in places where supply is constrained.” He added that these otherwise solid properties were for sale now because losses elsewhere were forcing their owners to raise money.
While many investors may not believe that real estate is returning as a steady, performing asset, the following criteria can guide those ready to re-enter the market. DUE DILIGENCE Investing in real estate has always carried risk. But where many people went wrong was in taking a house vanity approach — they bought their dream home without knowing how its price compared to either historical levels or the prices in nearby neighborhoods.
Mr. Rand tells the story of the Trump Tower, in White Plains, which he represents. When the sales office opened during construction, buyers focused on the penthouse condominiums with views of Long Island and New York City. At that time in 2004, the going price for 2,200 square feet on a high floor was around $1.8 million, he said. That would seem to be a deal for a buyer in Manhattan, 30 miles south, but in White Plains, few single-family homes had ever sold for that much.
He said investors who bought units on lower floors — priced closer to $700,000 — did much better. The reason was that their fixed costs — mortgage, fees and taxes — were lower, which meant they could attract a larger pool of renters to cover their investment.
The lesson here was that anyone who really knew the White Plains market would have been more hesitant in buying a $2 million apartment as an investment. “The key is due diligence over sex appeal,” he said. THE COSTS What makes or breaks any real estate investment is fixed costs. Investors need to know how they are going to cover the amount they have to pay, whether the property is rented or not.
In Trump Tower, the monthly fixed costs for the penthouse apartment were $11,100 with an expected rent in 2005 of $8,000, Mr. Rand said. On the lower floors, the costs and expected rent were the same, both about $5,000. Any experienced real estate investor will tell you there are times when even the best properties, whether apartments or shopping centers, have vacancies and that means some of those costs fall on the investor.
This sounds obvious, but from 2005 until early last year, there were plenty of amateur investors who only realized this after their tenants left. What signals a return to understanding that basic principle is a return of savvier investors. “A lot of people who are coming back into the market that I’ve known for decades are saying the market is normalizing again,” said Harvey E. Green, president and chief executive at the commercial real estate brokerage Marcus & Millichap, and a 40-year veteran of the real estate market. The years “2005, 2006, and 2007 were the frothiest part of the marketplace, and these people stepped out on the sidelines.”
In other words, the smart money is back after years of watching.
YOUR GOALS Consider the South Florida market again. Many people who got caught had visions of renters covering all the costs on properties they bought. When renters became scarce and values plummeted, these investors did not have a backup plan. A better way is to set a goal for the investment. Do you want to add to your cash flow immediately or can you afford to take a longer view of 10 to 15 years?
If your goal is to make money now, you will probably have to buy an older property and fix it up. This requires a more active role, and still, the return will not be what it was at the peak.
Mr. Nadji said investors in Class B commercial real estate — solid but not marquee properties — can expect returns in the high single digits. But most of those properties are not likely to appreciate in value for two or three years.
With a longer view, the options change. Ruth Trettis, a broker at Premier Properties in Naples, Fla., said one investor bought nine homes, worth more than $32 million, in the last year in Port Royal, the town’s most affluent neighborhood. Another investor bought three homes in Port Royal worth $14 million over a single weekend in May and a fourth one last month for $13.5 million (it was listed at $19.9 million).
So far, she said, neither buyer has done anything with the properties. Even though both bought these houses at steep discounts, the costs of just holding them are immense. But they clearly have a long-term goal and a belief in the area.
THE RISKS Real estate is like every investment today. Experts and amateurs alike have strong opinions on what will work and what won’t. The message within the real estate market itself is mixed. Last week’s report on flat home sales from April to May seemed to be heartening, but it was misleading. Homes sell better as the weather warms up. The better indicator of a bottom will come when year-on-year numbers are flat, and those have yet to appear.
The one upside is inflation, or at least the fear of inflation. Hard assets like real estate historically do well when there is inflation. What this means is the longer your time horizon for investing in property, the better your chance of achieving real returns.
“Real estate was never a short-term investment,” Mr. Green said. “It was just in that frothy market.” In this sense, the one certainty is that the age of the flipper is behind us.
Monday, August 3, 2009
Existing Home Sales Soar in Lee County
From the News-press July 23, 2009
The number of single-family homes sold with the assistance of a Realtor in Lee County in June soared to a record high of 1,705 — more than twice the 719 recorded a year earlier, according to statistics released today by the Florida Association of Realtors.June’s number was well above the 1,417 sold in May and the previous record of 1,468 in April.
Meanwhile, the median price of homes sold in June dropped to $87,900, off 49 percent from June 2008’s $172,400 and down less than 1 percent from May’s $88,500. Statewide, the number of sales was 15,850, up 28 percent from 12,339 a year earlier and up from 13,921 in May. The median statewide price was $148,000, down 28 percent from $205,300 a year earlier and up from $144,400 in May.
In a separate report also released today, the National Association of Realtors announced that sales of previously occupied homes rose for the third month in a row in June. The association said home sales rose 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million last month, from a downwardly revised pace of 4.72 million in May. Home sales haven’t risen nationally for three straight months since early 2004, during the housing boom.
Prices, however, are expected to keep falling well into next year because of a backlog of foreclosures that have yet to come on to the market. The median sales price was $181,800 in June, down 15 percent from year-ago levels but up slightly from $174,700 in May. It was the highest level of sales since last October and beat economists’ expectations. Sales had been expected to rise to an annual pace of 4.84 million units, according to Thomson Reuters. Sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties made up about a third of all transactions last month, down from nearly half earlier this year.
The Associated Press also contributed to this report
The number of single-family homes sold with the assistance of a Realtor in Lee County in June soared to a record high of 1,705 — more than twice the 719 recorded a year earlier, according to statistics released today by the Florida Association of Realtors.June’s number was well above the 1,417 sold in May and the previous record of 1,468 in April.
Meanwhile, the median price of homes sold in June dropped to $87,900, off 49 percent from June 2008’s $172,400 and down less than 1 percent from May’s $88,500. Statewide, the number of sales was 15,850, up 28 percent from 12,339 a year earlier and up from 13,921 in May. The median statewide price was $148,000, down 28 percent from $205,300 a year earlier and up from $144,400 in May.
In a separate report also released today, the National Association of Realtors announced that sales of previously occupied homes rose for the third month in a row in June. The association said home sales rose 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million last month, from a downwardly revised pace of 4.72 million in May. Home sales haven’t risen nationally for three straight months since early 2004, during the housing boom.
Prices, however, are expected to keep falling well into next year because of a backlog of foreclosures that have yet to come on to the market. The median sales price was $181,800 in June, down 15 percent from year-ago levels but up slightly from $174,700 in May. It was the highest level of sales since last October and beat economists’ expectations. Sales had been expected to rise to an annual pace of 4.84 million units, according to Thomson Reuters. Sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties made up about a third of all transactions last month, down from nearly half earlier this year.
The Associated Press also contributed to this report
Home prices up for 1st time in 3 years
Index of 20 major cities rises on a monthly basis for the first time since July 2006, hinting that the worst of the declines may be over.
[Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ay10JwkHKG0&feature=player_embedded ]
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The value of U.S. homes grew on a monthly basis in May for the first time in nearly three years, according to 20-city index released Tuesday. The month-over-month increase was 0.5%, according to the report from financial data company Standard & Poor's and economists Case-Shiller. It was the first increase in the monthly index since July 2006.
On an annual basis, home prices in the 20 cities fell 17.1%, but it was the fourth straight month that the year-over-year decline lessened. Builders hope for a piece of the pie. "This could be an indication that home price declines are finally stabilizing," said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee S&P, in a prepared statement. While acknowledging that the report was good news, Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com, downplayed the importance of a single month's statistics. "I think it's a temporary respite," he said. "It reflects the recent decline in foreclosure sales, and prices will continue to fall over the next several months."
Robert Shiller, the Yale economist who co-founded the index and who's famous for warning that the housing boom was, in fact, a bubble, said the decrease in foreclosure sales does show up in the index statistics as a plus for home prices. That's one reason he did not want to sound too optimistic; foreclosures could take off again. "And we could get more economic bad news, but it does look encouraging," he said. He added that he thought that Washington's efforts have boosted the nation's spirits, an important factor for the housing market.
"The government has done a lot to support the housing market," he said. "Confidence has improved. People are talking about 'green shoots.' People are thinking it's time the recession came to an end. The stock market is up."
The improvement was as broad as it was deep, with 13 metro areas showing gains, compared with eight in April. Two, New York and Tampa, Fla., showed no change. The biggest winner was long-suffering Cleveland, where prices rose 4.1%. The city still falling the most was Las Vegas, where prices declined 2.6%. The report added to the list of positive housing market indicators. These include rising new home sales, increased home building and increased pending sales.
Washington's goal: Stabilizing the housing market has been a primary goal of Washington policy makers. Congress has tried to stimulate homebuying by creating a temporary tax credit of $8,000 for people who have not owned a home for at least three years.
The administration has also tried to tackle the foreclosure problem, creating a program to help mortgage borrowers avoid defaulting on their loan payments and losing their homes.
Zandi added that lenders are still figuring out the administration's foreclosure prevention plan, and have suspended the foreclosure process for many borrowers in default. That means fewer distressed properties, which tend to bring in lower prices, than usual. One of the most positive things the government has done, according to Shiller, was to take control of the failing mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These were government sponsored enterprises that guaranteed a flow of mortgage lending by buying or backing mortgages in the secondary market. Without government backing up these companies, mortgage lending would have dried up, which would have devastated home sales. Lower prices: Prices have also fallen so far in so many places that it's drawing people back into the market.
In Las Vegas, prices are off about 53% from their peak, set in August 2006. Phoenix prices are down 54%. Overall, the 20-city index is down more than 32% from its high. Interest rates were very low in May, which also could have helped the housing market. The rate for a 30-year mortgage was well below 5% during the month, which encouraged buyers and drove up demand.
Zandi is hopeful that the market is stabilizing. "It feels like the cycle is winding down," he said. "I think it depends on how well the mortgage modification plan will work and I'm guessing it will work reasonably well."
First Published: July 28, 2009: 9:05 AM ET
http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/27/real_estate/May_Case_Shiller/?postversion=2009072810
[Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ay10JwkHKG0&feature=player_embedded ]
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The value of U.S. homes grew on a monthly basis in May for the first time in nearly three years, according to 20-city index released Tuesday. The month-over-month increase was 0.5%, according to the report from financial data company Standard & Poor's and economists Case-Shiller. It was the first increase in the monthly index since July 2006.
On an annual basis, home prices in the 20 cities fell 17.1%, but it was the fourth straight month that the year-over-year decline lessened. Builders hope for a piece of the pie. "This could be an indication that home price declines are finally stabilizing," said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee S&P, in a prepared statement. While acknowledging that the report was good news, Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com, downplayed the importance of a single month's statistics. "I think it's a temporary respite," he said. "It reflects the recent decline in foreclosure sales, and prices will continue to fall over the next several months."
Robert Shiller, the Yale economist who co-founded the index and who's famous for warning that the housing boom was, in fact, a bubble, said the decrease in foreclosure sales does show up in the index statistics as a plus for home prices. That's one reason he did not want to sound too optimistic; foreclosures could take off again. "And we could get more economic bad news, but it does look encouraging," he said. He added that he thought that Washington's efforts have boosted the nation's spirits, an important factor for the housing market.
"The government has done a lot to support the housing market," he said. "Confidence has improved. People are talking about 'green shoots.' People are thinking it's time the recession came to an end. The stock market is up."
The improvement was as broad as it was deep, with 13 metro areas showing gains, compared with eight in April. Two, New York and Tampa, Fla., showed no change. The biggest winner was long-suffering Cleveland, where prices rose 4.1%. The city still falling the most was Las Vegas, where prices declined 2.6%. The report added to the list of positive housing market indicators. These include rising new home sales, increased home building and increased pending sales.
Washington's goal: Stabilizing the housing market has been a primary goal of Washington policy makers. Congress has tried to stimulate homebuying by creating a temporary tax credit of $8,000 for people who have not owned a home for at least three years.
The administration has also tried to tackle the foreclosure problem, creating a program to help mortgage borrowers avoid defaulting on their loan payments and losing their homes.
Zandi added that lenders are still figuring out the administration's foreclosure prevention plan, and have suspended the foreclosure process for many borrowers in default. That means fewer distressed properties, which tend to bring in lower prices, than usual. One of the most positive things the government has done, according to Shiller, was to take control of the failing mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These were government sponsored enterprises that guaranteed a flow of mortgage lending by buying or backing mortgages in the secondary market. Without government backing up these companies, mortgage lending would have dried up, which would have devastated home sales. Lower prices: Prices have also fallen so far in so many places that it's drawing people back into the market.
In Las Vegas, prices are off about 53% from their peak, set in August 2006. Phoenix prices are down 54%. Overall, the 20-city index is down more than 32% from its high. Interest rates were very low in May, which also could have helped the housing market. The rate for a 30-year mortgage was well below 5% during the month, which encouraged buyers and drove up demand.
Zandi is hopeful that the market is stabilizing. "It feels like the cycle is winding down," he said. "I think it depends on how well the mortgage modification plan will work and I'm guessing it will work reasonably well."
First Published: July 28, 2009: 9:05 AM ET
http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/27/real_estate/May_Case_Shiller/?postversion=2009072810
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